Cyclone Mocha Finally Forms over the Bay of Bengal; To Become a Severe Cyclonic Storm Tonight

After days of restless anticipation and anxious weather tracking, the system brewing in the Bay of Bengal finally intensified into Cyclone Mocha this morning, effectively becoming the first storm of the 2023 cyclone season.

According to the latest update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal strengthened into Cyclonic Storm ‘Mocha’ during the early hours of Thursday.

As of 5:30 am today, Mocha lay centred about 510 km west-southwest of Port Blair (Andaman-Nicobar), 1210 km south-southwest of Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and 1120 km south-southwest of Sittwe (Myanmar).

From here on, the Cyclonic Storm is expected to move north-northwestwards and gradually intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm (SCS) by midnight tonight.

Thereafter, it is likely to recurve and move north-northeastwards from Friday morning, and further intensify into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) over Central BoB by Friday evening. It will retain this status for the subsequent 24 hours, hitting its peak intensity around Saturday evening.

For reference, the IMD categorises a system as a Cyclonic Storm when its 3-minute average maximum sustained wind speeds fall between 63-88 kmph. Similarly, a Severe Cyclonic Storm has winds between 89-117 kmph, and a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm between 118-165 kmph.

Come Sunday morning, Mocha will slowly start its deintensification process, and around forenoon, it will make landfall over southeast Bangladesh and north Myanmar — between Cox’s Bazar (Bangladesh) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) — with a maximum sustained wind speed of 120-130 kmph, gusting to 145 kmph.